941
FXUS65 KTWC 061908
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1208 PM MST Sat Jun 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will remain near to slightly
above normal through the the weekend and next week. Breezy
conditions are expected each afternoon, especially today in the
Gila River Valley and Safford.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern today is defined by an upper-
low centered near north Texas, a strong and deep trough of low
pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest and a shortwave ridge
squeezing in-between these two features across Southeast
Arizona. Dry airmass re-establishing itself across the area with
GOES precipitable water imagery indicating PWAT values between
0.45-0.55 inches. Tight gradient still residing NE of the 700mb
mid-level high (centered just south of the upper ridge axis
across NE Sonora Mexico) will result in some breezy northwest
winds across the Gila River Valley today. In fact, these winds
may result in brief near critical fire weather conditions.
However, with the mid-level high moving ESE, I would expect this
gradient to continue to relax late this afternoon and this
evening.
As we move into the first half of the week, the trough in the
Pacific Northwest becomes more established, with a larger scale
mean trough developing across the Great Basin into the Desert
Southwest...with a trough axis down toward the Baja Spur by
09/00Z Monday afternoon. Although some mid-level moisture will
get pushed northward into the far SE corner of state, this
system will likely remain dry for our neck of the woods. It will
however increase the southwesterly flow across the area, with
SSW 700-500 mb winds 35-40 kts across the western half of our
forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. We may see some of
these winds mix down more so than models forecast resulting in
the potential for critical fire weather conditions
Tuesday. However my confidence is still low with the timing and
strength of the trough axis, and it would be too iffy for any
fire weather headlines at this time.
In any event, if you stand on your tippy-toes, you can almost
see the Monsoon pattern trying to take shape the second half of
the week into next weekend as the trough in the northern stream
moves north. The allows for the subtropical high in SRN TX
Tuesday afternoon to move west across NRN Mexico to the SRN
border of Sonora/Chihuahua Mexico by 13/00Z Friday afternoon.
The 06/00Z NBM Grand Ensemble then brings the 1.00 inch PWAT
line northward through northern into the western Pima county
Saturday. Although there is a large variance, this is supported
by the 06/14Z NBM with a 10-25 percent probability of dewpoints
55+ degrees at the Tucson International Airport (KTUS) starting
Friday June 12th. I guess its about that time, as the start of
the Monsoon season is June 15th.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z. Mainly SKC with some cirrus
AOA 20k feet AGL moving in from the west after 07/00Z this
afternoon and persisting thru the forecast period. FEW-SCT
10-14k feet AGL clouds will develop east of a KALK-KSAD line aft
07/20Z Sunday afternoon. Surface winds northwest 10-15 kts with
gusts to 20 kts from KTUS-KOLS eastward diminishing after
07/03Z this evening to terrain driven less than 10 kts overnight.
Stronger winds at KSAD with 17-20 kt winds and gusts to 30 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts to
20-25 mph are expected again today from a Tucson-Nogales line
eastward. Stronger winds through the Gila River Valley of 18-24
mph and gusts to 35 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will
be 8-14 percent across desert locations, which will bring
periods of locally critical fire weather conditions in the Gila
River Valley with the stronger winds this afternoon. Winds west
of Tucson-Nogales will turn to the southwest. Sunday onwards
will see southwest winds of 12-18 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph
across southeastern Arizona each afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values should remain fairly consistently 8-15 percent
across desert locations and 12-18 percent in the mountains
through the middle of the week, with the potential for increasing
relative humidity Friday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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