302
FXUS65 KTWC 151847
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1147 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
through Saturday, with highs warming to 4 to 6 degrees above normal
Sunday through early next week. Gusty southwest winds are expected
across all of southeast Arizona on Thursday, with breezy southwest
to west winds persisting to the east of Tucson on Friday. Gusty east
to southeast winds will occur Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions
will continue through at least early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...An upper low will move from the Pacific Northwest
today across the northern tier of states on Thursday/Friday. A well
defined trough axis associated with this system will stay to our
north across the Great Basin as the upper low pushes east. The main
impact across southeast Arizona will be increased wind speeds on
Thursday and Friday. Expect south-southwest winds of 12-20 mph and
gusts to 25-35 mph areawide on Thursday, with southwest-west winds
of 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph to the east of Tucson on Friday.
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected east of Tucson
Thursday and Friday afternoon`s, mainly in Greenlee, Graham and
Cochise counties. High temperatures today and Friday will be a
couple degrees below normal, with highs a couple degrees above
normal Thursday and Saturday.
This weekend through early next week ridging will take place across
the Intermountain West, with a strong Pacific upper low sitting off
the West Coast. At time same time, surface high pressure will build
down the front range of the Rockies into west/central Texas Sunday
into Monday, resulting in a strong pressure gradient setting up over
southeast Arizona and western New Mexico. This will bring gusty east
to southeast winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph to locations
prone to easterly winds across southeast Arizona. Winds at this time
look the strongest in the Gila River Valley, where southeast winds
of 20-30 mph and gusts to around 40 mph will be possible. High
temperatures will warm to 4-6 degrees above normal Sunday through
early next week,
&
.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 16/03Z. Aft 16/03Z, FEW-SCT clouds
AOA 20k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY at 6-12 kts thru 16/02Z. SFC wind between 16/02Z and 16/17Z
less than 10 kts and variable in direction. Aft 16/17Z, increasing
SFC wind with SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 12-18 kts and gusts to 20-28 kts
by 16/19Z and continuing thru the end of the forecast cycle.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will move to our north on
Thursday and Friday, resulting in strong and gusty winds. RH values
will meet critical fire weather thresholds. However, wind speeds are
expected to remain below critical criteria, with near critical fire
weather conditions across the eastern half of southeast Arizona
(Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties) Thursday and Friday. There
may be an isolated location or two in these eastern areas that meet
Red Flag criteria for an hour or so mid to late afternoon. Light
winds then return on Saturday along with single digit RH values.
Gusty east-southeast winds (15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph) are
forecast Sunday into Monday morning. Wind speeds may be strong
enough in the Gila River Valley on Sunday to exceed critical fire
weather conditions. Minimum RH values Sunday and Monday will be in
the 8-18 percent range.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Zell
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