Tucson, AZ 
359 FXUS65 KTWC 072246 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 346 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A brief warm up with breezy conditions through the weekend. Moisture will begin to make its way into the region late this weekend with increasing chances for showers, especially Monday through Tuesday. Warm conditions return thereafter with && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicted the upper level trough mentioned in previous discussions digging to the south and west of Baja California. Just to its south and east, mid and high level moisture streaming over southeast Arizona resulting in scattered high level cirrus overhead. This afternoon and evening the low will become progressively more cutoff before eventually nudging eastward bringing increasing chances for precipitation by early next week for southeast Arizona. Ahead of the cutoff low, breezy to locally windy conditions are expected both on Sunday and Monday. Southerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph are expected as the cutoff low begins to nudge into our area from the south and west by late Sunday night. Current thinking is that the arrival of the low could be slightly delayed. This solution is supported by the spread in 500 hPa heights on the back side of the low per the AI-GEFS which delays moisture increases and subsequent precipitation until mid to late Monday morning compared to the NBM guidance which starts introducing a slight chances for showers (15-20%) as early as Sunday night over western Pima County. I did lower and delay the chances for showers out west to account for a delayed onset. By mid to late morning Monday we will start to see isolated to scattered showers with light to moderate rainfall continuing through Tuesday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out which would result in localized heavier rainfall rates which could cause ponding of water on streets and in poor drainage areas. Tuesday morning we could still see some lingering shower activity to the east of Tucson mainly along the New Mexico border and in the White and Chiricahua Mountains. But the majority of activity will have shifted east into New Mexico. Precipitation totals with this event generally will be between a quarter and half an inch with locally higher amounts for the mountains. A trace to an inch of snow possible on the mountain peaks with snow levels mainly above 8000 feet. Looking ahead, temperatures will rapidly warm above normal again with dry conditions returning to southeast Arizona along with Minor HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z. SCT high level cirrus. SFC winds SLY to SELY at 8-12 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts thru 08/03Z. Thereafter, winds become VRBL at below 8 kts. Tomorrow, SFC winds becoming SLY increasing to 9-15 kts after 08/17Z with a few gusts up to 25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...A brief warming trend this weekend before moisture moves into the region by late Sunday. Winds will be easterly to southeasterly up to 15 mph with strong gusts. Sunday morning will experience the strongest winds, especially in the Gila River Valley. Late Sunday, a weather system will begin to bring modest moisture and increasing chances for rain showers and lingering through the first half of the new week. The highest chances for rain showers will be between mid Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Towards the second half of the week, the region will be in a warming and drying trend. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$
