Tucson, AZ 
188 FXUS65 KTWC 140903 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering breezy winds today east of Tucson along with high temperatures 3-8 degrees below normal. After Wednesday temperatures are expected to be around normal with the potential for another round of breezy winds Thursday and Friday. This weekend temperatures heat back up to above normal. && .DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough is exiting the region moving into the Four Corners with a strong Pacific Low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The Pacific low will travel inland then dig south through the Great Basin Thursday into Friday. The core of the trough will likely stay to the north in Utah. In the wake of the shortwave today temperatures will be 3-8 degree cooler than normal with leftover breezy winds east of Tucson. High temperatures rebound a few degrees Wednesday into Friday with highs generally in the low 80s to upper 70s across the lower elevations. Breezy winds return Thursday and Friday as the trough passes to the north. Expect speeds 12-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. There is potential that winds could be strong enough to create fire weather concerns, especially on Thursday. Right now deterministic NBM wind grids are below critical thresholds, but 75th-90th percentile winds and other deterministic models show winds have the potential to reach critical thresholds. This weekend brief ridging is expected to take hold, which will lead to a warmup Saturday into the early part of next week. High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with the NBM giving Tucson around a 50 percent chance to hit 90 degrees. & .AVIATION...Valid through 15/12z. BKN clouds 6k-8k ft AGL this morning becoming FEW-SCT this afternoon and evening. After 15/02Z expect SKC conditions. SFC winds SWLY 6-10 kts this morning becoming 12-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts 14/18Z-15/02Z. The strongest winds will be at KDUG with KTUS and KOLS on the lower end of that range. After 15/02Z winds decrease below 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect breezy winds mainly east of Tucson with speeds 12-18 mph and gusts 20-30 mph. Wednesday winds will be terrain driven 5 to 10 mph. Another Pacific system will move through Thursday and Friday leading to another round strong gusty winds. Some uncertainty on the potential for critical fire weather conditions on Thursday. It will hinge on how strong the winds are. Right now they are below critical thresholds, but could increase as Thursday gets closer. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
