682
FXUS65 KTWC 012035
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
135 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal afternoon temperatures will continue
across Southeast Arizona through Monday, with record or near record
highs. Afternoon breezes are expected Monday, Tuesday and Thursday
of this week mainly east of Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft centered over northern Mexico will
continue to bring record heat to southeast Arizona through Monday,
with high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.
A series of weather systems of move to our north across the Great
Basin this week. These systems will be to far north to bring any
precipitation to southeast Arizona, but will result in `cooler`
temperatures and elevated afternoon/early evening winds. High
temperatures will lower to 7-9 degrees above normal by Thursday,
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations.
Breezy westerly winds are expected Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.
Wind speeds will generally be in the 15-20 mph range with gusts to
around 30 mph. The strongest winds will be on Tuesday afternoon
across portions of Cochise County, where sustained winds will be
around 20 mph and gusts to near 35 mph.
Highs will continue to lower to 2-5 degrees above normal by next
weekend as a cutoff low develops to our west. The Ensembles and
Deterministic models are in general agreement with the cutoff low
centered west of the Baja Spur by late next weekend. The current
forecast remains dry, but depending upon the evolution of this
system, it may end up pulling some moisture northward into our
forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind 10
kts or less thru 02/19Z, favoring a WLY/NWLY this afternoon/evening
and then variable in direction til 02/19Z. SWLY/WLY SFC wind aft
02/19Z at speeds of 11-16 kts and gusts to 20-26 kts, with the
strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK and KDUG.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Well above normal temperatures are expected across
southeast Arizona, with record or near record highs through Monday.
High temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal through Monday
then cool to about 10 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday,
with some additional cooling later in the week. A series of weather
systems will move to our north across the Great Basin this week,
resulting in breezy westerly 20-foot winds Monday, Tuesday and
Thursday. Wind speeds will generally be 15-20 mph and gusts to
around 30 mph. Minimum relative humidity values at all elevations
will be in the 10-18 percent range through Thursday, with values
rising 3-7 percent Friday into Saturday. The models show a cut off
low to our west late next weekend into early the following week,
which may pull some moisture into the region depending upon how the
system evolves.
&&
.CLIMATE...Daily records will be approached, tied or exceeded
today and Monday.
Location Forecast Daily Record
Sun Mon Sun Mon
Tucson 90 89 87(1986) 91(2009)
Organ Pipe 95 93 92(2016) 93(2009)
Ajo 94 91 90(2016) 92(2009)
Picacho Peak 89 89 87(2009) 89(2009)
Oracle 81 80 78(2009) 78(2016)
Safford (town) 88 87 86(2025) 85(2002)
Willcox 86 85 82(1974) 82(2008)
Sierra Vista 84 85 80(1999) 85(2009)
Nogales (town) 88 87 87(1976) 86(2016)
Douglas 86 87 83(1999) 86(2009)
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Zell
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NWS Tucson (TWC) Office
Tucson, AZ 
