685
FXUS65 KFGZ 181114
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
414 AM MST Wed Jun 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather forecast to continue under another
strong ridge. Winds will gradually increase Thursday through the
weekend with an incoming trough. This pattern shift will likely
bring additional fire weather concerns initially, and potentially
chances for showers across eastern AZ by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Once again we find ourselves under a strong area of
high pressure, resulting in hot to dangerously hot temperatures.
The Extreme Heat Warning for lower elevations of the Grand Canyon
continues through Friday evening, where temperatures at Phantom
Ranch could reach 114 degrees. Triple digit highs are likely for
many lower elevation locations, so be sure to avoid strenuous
activity during the hottest part of the day (~11 AM - 7 PM MST).
Although heat will be a main story through the end of the week,
near critical to critical fire weather concerns look to rejoin the
forecast Thursday through the weekend. These conditions will be
brought by an incoming low pressure system. This trough looks to
push the previously mentioned area of high pressure gradually
eastward and tighten pressure gradients across the region. With
the lack of moisture coming in initially, elevated winds mixed
with the continued dry weather will result in the potential fire
weather concerns.
Model guidance suggests this low pressure system lingering around
the western CONUS through the middle of next week, where we could
start to see a slight increase in moisture. If any moisture creeps
into Arizona, it will likely remain limited to our eastern border.
With this possibility of precipitation being nearly a week away,
confidence is low in how everything will pan out. Check back later
for more details.
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 18/12Z through Thursday 19/12Z...VFR
conditions and variable winds generally 10 kts or less expected
through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 19/12Z through Saturday 21/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the outlook period. Look for SW winds 15-25 kts
gusting near 40 kts each afternoon. S-SW winds around 5-15 kts
expected during the overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Hot temperatures and
minimum RH values generally 10% or less forecast to continue. Look
for variable winds around 10 mph on Wednesday afternoon, becoming
south-southwest 15-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph on Thursday. Near
critical to critical fire weather conditions expected on Thursday.
Friday through Sunday...A slight cooling trend is expected through
the weekend, with minimum RH values gradually increasing from single
digits on Friday to 15-20% on Sunday. Southwest winds 15-25 mph
gusting near 40 mph expected each afternoon, resulting in possible
critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
