013
FXUS65 KFGZ 161123
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 AM MST Thu Apr 16 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Look for another round of windy conditions today,
followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes
to our north. Dry on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then a
slight chance of showers on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona is still on track for a fast moving
and dry shortwave trough to brush the area. Current model
forecasts have continued the trend of shifting the trough further
north. For today, in advance of the trough axis, winds will
become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will
remain gusty overnight, gradually weakening and shifting to a west
to northwest direction by early Friday as the trough heads
eastward. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph
gusting to 25 mph over much of the area. However, east of a
Winslow to Four Corners line winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35
mph will persist, weakening through Friday afternoon.
For Friday night through Saturday...A dry northeast to east flow
will develop. In wind protected locations above 6,500 feet strong
radiational cooling will present the potential for low
temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday morning.
Otherwise, look for northeast to east winds at 5-15 mph across
much of the area. The exception will be along and south of the
Mogollon Rim from late Friday through early Sunday, for locations
where northeast winds tend to funnel, gusts to 25 mph are
forecast.
From Sunday onward...Northeast winds will likely be short-lived as
a longwave trough will start to approach Arizona from over the
Pacific Ocean on Sunday. Consequently, look for gusty south to
southwest winds to return on Sunday, lasting well into next week
and gradually shifting to southwest. As the Pacific trough
approaches and with a south to southwest flow developing, moisture
will be on the increase. A pair of weak passing shortwave
disturbances in the general flow will deliver just enough upward
motion Sunday and Monday for a slight chance of a light shower or
two over the mountains of northern Arizona. The onset of southerly
flow will introduce a milder air mass with temperatures
moderating to above seasonal averages both day and night.
&&
.AVIATION...Thursday 16/12Z through Friday 17/12Z...VFR
conditions. Winds generally light and variable until 15Z, then
increasing to SW at 15-25 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts,
diminishing to 5-15 kts gusting to 25-30 kts overnight.
OUTLOOK...Friday 17/12Z through Sunday 19/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds NW to N at 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts on Friday,
shifting to N to NE Friday night, then becoming NE to E at 5-15
kts on Saturday. Local gusts to 25 kts along and south of the
Mogollon Rim 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Expect dry conditions and cooler
temperatures. Today will see south/southwest winds at 10-20 mph
gusting to 30-40 mph. On Friday winds becoming north/northwest at 10-
15 mph, locally gusting to 30 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward.
Minimum RH 10-20% each day.
Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry, outside of a
slight chance of showers over the higher terrain on Sunday. Winds
northeast/east at 5-15 mph on Saturday with local gusts of 25-30 mph
from the Mogollon Rim southward. Winds shifting to southeast/south
at 10-20 mph on Sunday and Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on
Saturday, increasing to 10-20% on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
