615
FXUS65 KFGZ 012301
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
401 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Very warm, dry and breezy weather continues today.
Increased southwest winds are expected tomorrow, with slightly
cooler temperatures for the rest of next week. Some storm activity
may develop late in the week and next weekend, but outlooks are
leaning dry and confidence is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...An amplified ridge remains over the southwestern
United States today and very warm temperatures will continue. In
fact, areas northeast and east of Flagstaff have mixed out due to
stronger winds aloft and Winslow has already soared past the daily
record. As our ridge slowly breaks down on Monday, continued strong
mixing will prolong record temperatures east of Flagstaff, while
other areas cool a few degrees.
For most of next week, patterns will be governed by the upper level
pattern, as it becomes unstable. This is due to the Hudson Bay Low
opening up and allowing flow through central Canada to become more
progressive. At the least, this will bring an occasionally windy
and cooler pattern to our area, but moisture is lacking.
The s/wv moving to our north Monday will bring some Wind Advisory
gusts to much of the region and headlines have been issued. A brief
recovery in hghts Tuesday and Wednesday will bring some warming and
less wind.
Later in the week and next weekend, successive lows tracking through
the Great Basin may break down the pattern enough to produce some
rain or snow late in the period, but confidence remains low. Current
trends have the next few s/wvs carving out a low to our south, not
conducive for rain or snow here. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 02/00Z through Tuesday 03/00Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Gusty W-SW winds will gradually
decline through 06Z. Winds along the Mogollon Rim and northward
expected to be southerly 5-10 kts overnight, and light and
variable elsewhere. After 18Z, look for SW winds 15-25 kts gusting
near 40 kts. Strongest winds will be along and north of the
Mogollon Rim.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/00Z through Thursday 05/00Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Expect west through north winds 5-15
kts Tuesday afternoon, becoming southwesterly 10-20 kts on
Wednesday. Look for overnight winds to be light and variable.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry and warm Monday with
temperatures 15-20 degrees above average. A cooldown begins Tuesday,
but temperatures still remain about 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Winds SW 20-30 mph, gusting 35-45 mph on Monday, becoming NW-N 5-15
mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% Monday, 10-20% on
Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday..Dry conditions continue Wednesday with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. Temperatures cool to near
average Thursday and Friday and for the most part things remain dry.
However, the highest elevations could see an isolated snow shower on
Friday. Winds SW 5-15 mph on Wednesday, SW-W 10-20 mph for Thursday
and then N-NE 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH values from 10-20% on
Wednesday, 15-30% Thursday and Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ012>017-039-
040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
