153
FXUS65 KFGZ 062010
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
110 PM MST Sat Jun 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy weather will continue into early next
week, with temperatures close to normal. Critical fire weather
conditions are expected at times through Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A trough over the northwest United State will remain
in place through early next week. Our region is on the dry and
windy southern end of the trough. The main concerns in northern
Arizona will be gusty winds and low humidity, leading to areas of
critical fire weather. The windiest areas this afternoon have been
from around Flagstaff north and west where gusts have reached
30-40 mph and a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Coverage of 30-40
mph gusts is forecast to increase on Sunday and the Red Flag
Warning area expands as a result to include most of northern
Arizona. There remains some uncertainty as to how far south the
trough dips on Monday and Tuesday, and this will impact our wind
speeds. For this reason, the Fire Weather Watch for those days will
remain in effect at this time. Winds look to decrease for the
latter half of next week as the trough moves off to the east.
Warmer temperatures are likely toward the end of next week and the
weekend as heights build from the southeast. The grand ensemble
mean 500 mb height is close to 590 dam which would result in daily
highs several degrees above normal. Ensembles are also hinting at
some increase in moisture from the south by Friday and the
weekend. PoPs are currently less than 15% but this will be worth
keeping an eye on.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 06/18Z through Sunday 07/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Winds are SW-W 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts. Overnight
winds are S-SW 5-15 kts.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Winds are SW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Sunday then
15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Monday. Winds are generally S-SW
5-15 kts during the overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Warm, dry, and windy
conditions. Near-critical to critical fire weather each day. Winds
are southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Saturday and Sunday,
then gusts increasing to 35-45 mph on Monday. Minimum RH is 7-15%
each afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for northwest zones
and the western Mogollon Rim through this evening, then expands to
include most of northern AZ on Sunday. Most of northern AZ remains
under a Fire Weather Watch on Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry, with winds diminishing some
on Wednesday and Thursday. Critical to near critical fire weather
conditions are possible on Tuesday, and a Fire Weather Watch remains
in effect for most of northern Arizona. Winds southwest 15-30 mph
with gusts 35-45 mph on Tuesday, becoming southwest/west 10-20 mph
gusting 25-35 mph Wednesday, then west 10-20 mph on Thursday.
Minimum RH is 5-15% each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104-106-107-115.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>116-139-140.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ104>117-138>140.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
