573
FXUS65 KFGZ 201950
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1250 PM MST Mon Oct 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonably warm weather is expected through
Tuesday, before a weak low pressure system brings back chances for
showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into early Thursday. Dry
conditions arrive for the end of the week with breezy conditions
possible on Sunday afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Brief ridging will allow temperatures Tuesday to
warm 5-10 degrees above average. Starting on Wednesday a weakening
cut off Low will drift across the area. As it does so it may tap
enough moisture for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms over
the higher elevations on Wednesday and along the Arizona/Utah
border on Thursday. During the coldest morning hours Wednesday
and Thursday mornings a few snowflakes may briefly mix in at the
highest elevations (Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco Peaks) but no
accumulation or impacts expected. Thursday will be a colder day
behind the departing system with temperatures a couple degrees
below average and about 10 degrees colder than Wednesday.
Friday into early Sunday a weak ridge noses into the area bringing
dry weather and a slight warming of about 5 degrees from Thursday.
During the day Sunday a Pacific trough moves by to the north
flattening the ridge. Only real consequences from this trough will
be some breezy conditions and temperatures dropping 5 degrees just
being a hair below the seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 20/18Z through Tuesday 21/18Z...VFR expected.
SW to NW winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z.
Locally higher winds downwind of the terrain overnight.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 21/18Z through Thursday 23/18Z...Mainly VFR
expected. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA after 12Z Wednesday. SW winds 5-15 kts
Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts on
Wednesday, then W-NW winds 10-20 kts on Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions
continue on Tuesday. Increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday with amounts less than 0.10" expected.
West to southwest winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph
on Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% on Tuesday, increasing to
20-40% on Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...Isolated showers towards the AZ/UT
border on Thursday. Otherwise, expect warmer and dry weather to
return through Saturday. West to northwest winds 10-20 mph on
Thursday, decreasing to 5-15 mph for Friday. South to southwest
winds 5-15 mph return for Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 20-40%
through Friday, then 15-30% on Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
