276
FXUS65 KFGZ 140908
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
208 AM MST Tue Apr 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Look for gusty winds and mainly isolated showers today
as the current storm system moves eastward. Another round of
windy weather is expected Thursday, followed by cooler
temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The
weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below
normal morning lows.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The current low pressure system will rapidly exit
Arizona today. The best chance for showers will be toward the
Arizona/New Mexico border through mid-morning. There could be an
additional inch or two of snow in the higher elevations of the
Chuska mountains with rain amounts ranging from 0.10-0.20 at lower
elevations. The snow level will range roughly from 6,000-6,500
feet through the early morning hours. For the remainder of the
day enough moisture will linger for isolated instability showers
which should mainly be light and brief. Behind the low pressure
system gradients will weaken so it won`t be as windy as was
observed on Monday. Consequently, we are looking at primarily west
winds at 10-20 mph with a few gusts approaching 30 mph with the
higher values mainly located from Flagstaff eastward.
On Wednesday...Dry air will move in from the west. Pressure
gradients will be much weaker with southwest to west winds at 5-15
mph forecast. The air mass will be milder with temperatures
ranging near seasonal averages.
For Thursday through Friday...Another trough will deliver a
glancing blow to northern Arizona. The main impact will be a
return to stronger winds. On Thursday, ahead of the trough axis,
winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph.
Winds will remain gusty Thursday night but gradually weaken and
shift to a west to northwest direction as the trough axis moves
across the area. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 10-20
mph gusting to 30 mph behind the trough. There will be some
dynamics for upward motion along the Arizona/Utah border but with
limited moisture the chances for any showers will be slight,
mainly Thursday night through the morning Friday.
From Saturday onward...Even drier air moves in. With lighter winds
and strong radiational cooling there will be the potential for
elevations above 6,500 feet to see low temperatures in the teens
to mid 20s both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Another trough will
approach Arizona from Sunday into early next week with gusty
southwest winds returning to begin next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 14/06Z through Wednesday 15/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with MVFR conditions in scattered -SHRA/-SHSN through
12Z. Periods of IFR are possible in SHSN over the higher terrain.
ISO showers possible through 00Z/Wed. Lingering MVFR CIGs through
15Z, then mainly VFR expected. SW winds 10-20 kts with locally
higher gusts of 30-40 kts possible along a KSOW-KSJN line overnight.
Winds become W 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts after 16Z.
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/06Z through Friday 17/06Z...VFR conditions.
SW winds 5-15 kts on Wednesday, increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts
to 30 kts on Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated showers will linger
today, mainly light and brief. Dry conditions return on Wednesday.
Winds west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph today, then diminishing to
southwest to west at 5-15 mph on Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...Dry through the period. Winds southwest
at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Thursday, shifting to northwest
on Friday, then turning variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH
of 10-20% is forecast for Thursday and Friday, then turning a bit
drier at 10-15% on Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
