200
FXUS65 KFGZ 071121
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
421 AM MST Wed Oct 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for the eastern portions of Arizona for the next few days.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions will
persist. By the weekend and into early next week, a colder and much
windier pattern develops, along with the potential for a significant
rainfall event, as tropical moisture moves back into the southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak trough over north-central Arizona this morning
will meander southeastward through Thursday. This will keeps the
ongoing threat for high-based and isolated convection intact, mainly
for the eastern zones.The trough is moving around a ridge that has
now been displaced southwestward, but is still close enough to
provide us with above normal temperatures for the next few days.

By the end of the week, the ridge moves a bit eastward, before
collapsing heading into the weekend as a much stronger trough enters
the interior Pacific Northwest. This next trough will then dig south
or southwestward, strengthening and possibly cutting off by Sunday
or Monday. This will likely allow for significant tropical moisture
transport into Arizona, along with the remnants of Hurricane Rachel.
The trough does not eject inland until next Tuesday or Wednesday, so
this moisture stream could go on for awhile.

There are still many things that could go wrong with this forecast
and the phasing of the offshore trough and tropical moisture is not
as dialed in as it was yesterday. Nonetheless, this is potentially
a very impactful pattern.

For now, there is higher confidence in a windy, colder and wet
pattern developing as early as Saturday and lasting well into next
week. There is lower confidence in QPF amounts and the potential for
intact tropical circulation remnants actually moving into the state.

Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 07/12Z through Thursday 08/12Z...Expect
mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA, mainly over Apache
County. A few showers may produce brief MVFR and gusty outflow
winds. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect flight operations.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 08/12Z through Saturday 10/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA southern Apache County Thursday and
Friday afternoons. Light winds through 18Z Friday, then S10-15kts
during the daytime on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Expect mainly dry
conditions and continued seasonably warm temperatures. A slight
chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms remains possible for
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, primarily for the eastern zones.
Chances for wetting rains are near zero. Daytime winds generally
light and variable, trending easterly or southeasterly over higher
terrain each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Dry and continued warm for Friday Then
turning windy and cooler over the weekend, with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Southerly winds 10 to 15 mph Friday
becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40 mph
over the weekend. The windiest day will be Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS Flagstaff Office