939
FXUS65 KPSR 012350
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
450 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures in the nineties will be fairly widespread across
the lower deserts this afternoon and slightly less widespread
Monday afternoon, challenging record highs in many areas.
- A series of dry weather systems will influence the region
during the remainder of the week leading to occasionally breezy
conditions and cooler but still above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Abnormally strong high pressure over the southwest US will
continue to bring record warm temperatures for early March through
the beginning of the work week. Objective analysis and ensembles
advertise a deep layer of unusually warm temperatures entrenched
over the region, with mean H8-H5 temperatures hovering near/above
the CFSR climatological maximum values for this time of year into
Monday. Periods of high cloud cover may prevent the current
forecast highs from being realized, but confidence is good that
readings will at least reach 90F for most of the typically warmer
lower desert locations and middle 90s for the warmest spots of
Southwest AZ and Southeast CA, challenging records (see Climate
section).
An upper level low currently seen in midlevel wv imagery off the
NorCal Coast will move onshore Monday, helping to dislodge ridging
eastward over New Mexico. Despite the ridging dislodging
eastward, NAEFS mean 850 mb temperatures remain near/above
climatological max values, reflecting the slower response of low
level thermal profiles. As such, record highs will once again be
challenged in some places Monday, though lower coverage of 90+F
temperatures is anticipated across the area. Ensembles remain in
excellent agreement that the upper low will remain well to our
north, resulting in little more than an increase in winds on
Monday. Widespread afternoon and early evening gusts to 15-25 mph
are likely, with locally stronger gusts over the AZ high terrain
and for areas prone to mountain rotor activity in the wake of the
San Diego Mountains during the evening (i.e., mainly portions of
Imperial County).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The early week system is expected to move to our northeast on
Tuesday allowing for a bit more cooler air to move in from the
northwest pushing daytime highs down into the mid 80s. The weather
pattern through mid-week will remain quite progressive with a
shortwave ridge passing through on Wednesday followed by broad
troughing setting up by Thursday. Temperatures will remain well
above normal on Wednesday and likely even into Thursday with highs
still topping 80 degrees across all of the lower deserts.
Once the broad troughing pattern sets up over the Western U.S.
late week, it should again lead to increased winds across the
region but dry air will remain in place. Guidance is still
struggling to come to a good consensus with the eventual
evolution of a main shortwave trough that is likely to drop
southward through the Great Basin into or near our region by next
weekend. Guidance mostly agrees the trough will deepen Friday
into Saturday somewhere across our region, but there is much
higher uncertainty with how long the low will stick around and
whether or not there will be enough moisture to bring back any
rain chances. The cooling trend should at least continue Friday
into the weekend with highs likely dropping into the upper 70s at
some point.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2350Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Diurnal wind tendencies are favored through the next 24 hours,
with light speeds (aob 8 kts) tonight through Monday morning.
Breezy W-SW winds will develop by Monday afternoon with sustained
speeds around 8-13 kts and gusts mostly around 15-20 kts. SCT to
BKN cirrus clouds will continue to pass over the area through the
TAF period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
E`rly winds will come around to the west this evening at both
terminals, with a few gusts up to 15-20 kts at KIPL possible this
evening. Winds will be light Monday morning, with periods of light
variability, before W`rly breezes increase heading into the
afternoon. Wind gusts up to 20-25 kts are expected at both
terminals mid-afternoon through the evening Monday. FEW to BKN
cirrus will continue to pass overhead through the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
through the middle of the week, however, the overall weather
pattern will begin to shift as a few dry systems influence the
region this week and temperatures cool slightly. Afternoon minRHs
will persist in a 10-15% range, with overnight recoveries between
30-50%. Winds will remain largely under 15 mph, however, the dry
systems that influence the region will result in enhanced
breeziness Monday and again late in the week, with upslope gusts
to around 25 mph. The typical wind prone areas of the western
districts (along the Lower Colorado River Valley and portions of
Southeast CA) will see stronger gusts during these periods of
enhanced breeziness, particularly later in the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily High Temperature Records:
Phoenix Yuma El Centro
--------- --------- ---------
3/1 89 (2016) 93 (1986) 91 (2016)
3/2 90 (2016) 94 (1910) 92 (2016)
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Whittock/Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock
CLIMATE...Benedict
NWS Phoenix Office
Tucson, AZ 
